Loading tonight's forecast.
Who did what tonight
Five roles run every evening. Two of them are Nemotron models called through Nightshift; the rest is code. Every line below is read from tonight's trace.
Why the desk said this
The four streams of guidance
Evidence
Every number the desk used, as it stood at 18:00 HST. Each query ran through the Zetaris semantic layer with the cutoff applied; re-checks ordered by the review are marked.
How the desk worked through the night's case
Every step from the trace, in order. Steps on the amber rail are the review's re-checks; the blue rail is the decision.
How the desk has done
The held-out season, 1 July to 21 October 2026, scored once after every rule was frozen. Lower Brier score is better.
Every held-out night
The desk's probability each evening. Filled dots are nights that reached 75 ppb; open dots stayed below. The line is the action threshold.
Live log
Forecasts issued from 23 to 26 October 2026, each committed before the outcome was known and checked the next afternoon.